Friends & Partners,
I don’t write newsletters often. In fact, the last one I wrote was in March of 2022! Given that, hopefully you know I’m coming at you with something important.
A lot of our clients are asking themselves (and us): Should we wait until things feel clearer before we hire?
It is an understandable instinct. Markets are volatile. Geopolitics are dicey. Priorities are shifting. Long-term plans feel harder to lock in. After spending years alongside leadership teams navigating growth, contraction, and transformation, I have come to believe something important: Uncertainty is no longer a phase we are waiting out. It is the new norm.
“The Plan” Is Not a Prerequisite for the Leader
We are seeing a meaningful shift in how leadership roles are defined and filled. Increasingly, companies are not hiring leaders to execute a fully formed plan. They are hiring leaders to create it, adapt it, and nimbly guide its execution.
The most effective leaders today are not the ones who arrive with all the answers. They are the ones who can exercise strong judgment when information is incomplete and bring coherence to situations that are still taking shape. As conditions evolve, these leaders adapt in real time rather than waiting for certainty to arrive. From that perspective, waiting for everything to feel clear is a bit backwards. The right leader becomes a source of clarity, rather than another person waiting around for it.
Why Waiting Often Creates More Risk
Many organizations view pausing hiring as the conservative move. In practice, it is often one of the riskiest. When decisions stall, time-to-hire stretches. Internal teams quietly absorb more work. Succession plans remain theoretical instead of actionable. At the same time, the talent pool you are competing for begins to change.
Stability, it turns out, is not what attracts the strongest leaders. Meaningful, unsolved problems do. High-caliber leaders tend to be selectively opportunistic during periods of uncertainty. They are willing to consider change when the work itself is compelling and when there is a genuine mandate to make an impact. Organizations that can move with intention in these moments stand out quickly. Those who wait for the market to calm down often find themselves competing for a very different tier of talent.
The Candidate Side of the Equation Is Changing Too
Uncertainty is not only affecting employers. It is affecting candidates as well.
We are seeing more hesitation at the offer stage, even among highly engaged finalists. At Treehouse, our own data shows just how pronounced this shift has become. In 2023, 16.7 percent of accepted offers were ultimately declined. That number rose to 20 percent in 2024. In 2025, it jumped to nearly 40 percent. This trend reflects a broader reality in which senior leaders are weighing risk more carefully and taking longer to commit. Alignment around mandate, support, and trajectory now plays a far greater role in final decisions.
This dynamic adds complexity to an already demanding recruiting environment, particularly as internal talent acquisition teams face increasing workloads and longer decision cycles.
Succession, Readiness, and the Silver Tsunami
Layered on top of all of this is a demographic shift that cannot be ignored. As a large cohort of senior leaders approaches retirement, many organizations are discovering that their succession plans are thinner than expected.
Research shows that fewer than half of organizations feel confident in their internal leadership pipelines. At the same time, the capabilities required of leaders are evolving faster than ever. Adaptability, learning velocity, and sound judgment now matter just as much as traditional experience.
Where Treehouse Fits In
This is the work we do best.
We partner with leadership teams when the role itself is still taking shape. The mandate may be evolving, the future state may not yet be fully defined, and adaptability is often just as important as background. We know how to evaluate leaders not only for where an organization has been, but for what it is going to be.
In a market defined by uncertainty, the goal is not to wait for perfect conditions. Waiting for clarity rarely reduces risk. More often, it simply delays the same decisions while the talent market quietly moves on without you. The goal is to move thoughtfully, decisively, and with the right partner at the table.
As always, we are grateful for the trust you place in us and welcome the opportunity to talk through how these dynamics may be showing up in your organization.
Many thanks,
Kate
Sources and Further Reading
McKinsey and Company, HR Monitor 2025
Gartner, Leader and Manager Development Tops HR Leaders’ Priorities
McKinsey and Company, Developing a Resilient, Adaptable Workforce for an Uncertain Time